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Greece on a diet for EUR recovery

The EUR returned to a level above 1.3230 after confidence was restored in the 17 country currency by the passing of the Greek bailout. Default is still on the horizon as the terms imposed on Greece are harsh and have drawn criticism from economists who warn that the lessons from Argentina should not be forgotten.... Full story
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Euro Zone Service Sector Contracted In February

The euro zone’s service sector contracted unexpectedly in February, increasing fears of a recession. Euro zone Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by Markit, fell to 49.4 in February from 50.4 in January, below the forecasted level. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction. Euro zone manufacturing PMI rose to 49.0 from January’s 48.8, but still remained below 50 for the seventh consecutive ... Full story
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Where to now EUR?

Long/short rations is an excellent indicator for overall market sentiment. The bar chart below indicates that +58% (updated every 15-mins) of the market is/or has been bearish the EUR and there lies the danger after this early morning Greek deal announcement. The potential risk of a Greek default is subsiding after EU Policy makers agreed a bailout for the country. Investors will be ... Full story

Bailout in Brussels to help the BoJ

The BoJ became the latest G8 central bank to ease policy this week. Governor Shirakawa and his policy makers announced a +Y10t increase in their asset-purchases and at the same time, formalized their inflation objective (an approach to fighting deflation). They intend to buy JGB’s with the new funds. The market risk is that the MoF follows this move with more aggressive ... Full story
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USD Liquidity an Issue

US data has done a stellar job this week. Above expectation prints have helped to sustain the EUR and other risk related currencies as the market heads towards the showdown in Brussels on Monday. Initial jobless claims last week beat expectations, falling to the lowest level in four years, meanwhile Philly Fed for this month came in stronger than expected, as did ... Full story
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Week in FX Europe Feb 12-17

This weeks highly anticipated teleconference meeting only produced ‘sound bites’, allowing another day to be wasted and another day closer to default. The next Euro finance meeting is this coming Monday in Brussels. It’s here that the market again will hope for more clarity on a potential Greek third tranche timetable. The aggressive squeeze put on the weaker EUR shorts in the ... Full story
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Yen Falls as Bank of Japan Announces Inflation Goal, New Stimulus

By Daniel James Hayden IV The Japanese yen fell against the US dollar after the Bank of Japan announced an inflation goal of 1% and said that it was increasing its asset purchase and lending program. Although the Bank of Japan had already stated its intention to fight the deflation that has afflicted Japan’s economy for nearly two decades, the announcement of an explicit ... Full story
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Another EUR Hail Mary Pass

How many Hail Mary passes can one catch? Greece is running out of ideas and options whilst the rest of Europe is on the verge of letting the ship sail. Not the end of the EU, but one less member. China overnight has pledged her support for the beleaguered union while Greek leaders said they would provide written austerity promises in exchange ... Full story
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Being Long Euros is Lonely

Owning the single currency is not making anyone wealthy at the moment, not even after China lent her mighty support to the beleaguered currency by teasing us with potential investment support yesterday. Chinese policy makers are waiting for the appropriate time to invest in EUR’s as a reserve currency and that time is when European officials can produce innovative instruments with better ... Full story
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No End to the Euro Greek Tragedy

In 24-hours the market has gone from buying into the ‘yet signed’ Greek austerity Troika imposed measures, to a market, again, being slapped silly by another reactionary rating agency’s actions. The whip-lashed single currency has seen little reprieve as it trades close to last weeks support levels and ahead of tomorrows Euro finance ministers meeting. Investors are reluctant to make any bold ... Full story
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